Confirm rate-risk limits
Set conditional duration bands after the US Core PCE release.
Use a staged response; avoid a pre-release binary position.
Notes and rationale
Reassess duration after the PCE release—not before it
The policy rate was held while the market continues to price easing. The next inflation release is the nearest high-information input for the September path.
Long-end volatility can remain elevated even if the inflation print is directionally softer, because term-premium and fiscal concerns are separate drivers.
Do not make a binary duration call before the release. Prepare conditional ranges and act only after the rates market confirms the inflation signal.
Relevant to portfolio duration, global equity discount rates, bank positioning, and USD/TRY sensitivity.
Review duration bands after 15:30 Istanbul; pre-authorize a staged response for a ±5 bp move in the US 10-year yield.
Core PCE surprise of ±0.1 pp or a 5 bp move in the US 10-year yield.A benign print may already be priced; weak growth evidence could dominate and accelerate the rally.