Decision Memory
Locked 31 Jul 2026 · 08:20
Use conditional duration bands rather than a pre-release directional position
Core PCE is the nearest high-information event while long-end yields also reflect term-premium risk.
Original reasoning
Wait and apply conditional bands
Reasons
- Avoid binary event risk
- Keep response thresholds explicit
- Separate inflation from term-premium drivers
Counterarguments
- A benign print may already be priced
- Growth weakness could dominate
Risks accepted
- Possible opportunity cost if yields rally before approval
Immutable evidence
Decision-time snapshot
Current values never overwrite these historical observations.
Data available
US 10-year 4.32%
Core PCE release scheduled 15:30 Istanbul
Sources available
Federal Reserve
US BEA
Meridian source framework
Market values
S&P futures 6,392
US 10-year 4.32%
VIX 16.8
Recommendation
Act only after a ±5 bp confirmation in the 10-year yield.
Review date · 7 Aug 2026
Outcome review
Your assessment becomes a new version; it does not alter the original snapshot.